Monday, January 26, 2004

Is John Kerry Electable?

"I can see an ad that starts with Ted Kennedy and goes to Michael Dukakis.."
- Thomas Rath, Conservative Political Activist

Since Kerry's surprise comeback and Howard Dean's dismal performance in Iowa, the Democratic Primary tables have turned: now Kerry is suddenly the hot item in New Hampshire.

So now it's time for us to shift our contemplation to Kerry's electability: he might have a sterling resume, but he's from the notoriously liberal state of Massachusetts, and is vulnerable to the type of sound-byte characterizations that Mr. Rath suggested above. Bill Saffire of the NY Times cited, in today's column, Kerry's "fatal Massachusettsism."

Is it really fatal? Would the L-word cripple a Kerry candidacy in a head-to-head with George W. Bush?

Well, nothing is for sure in post-9/11 American politics.

After the capture of Saddam, Kerry appeared on the major networks, where he sounded strong and sure. During his appearance on the feisty O'Reilly Factor, Kerry came back with all the right answers. He sounded like a guy that could represent the majority of Americans.

On a separate interview with Dan Rather on CBS, Kerry called for a "legitimate" coalition in Iraq. "Our military is overextended," he said, "Bring the world to the table, and we can transform Iraq together at lower risk and at lower cost to the American people…"

"It is not a good idea for the United States of America to almost single-handedly be occupying a middle eastern nation…"

If Kerry kept repeating such words to Americans in a head-to-head with Bush, a lot of American heads would likely be nodding along in agreement. The question is whether Kerry will have that card to play come election time - or if Bush will have gone to the U.N. by then, doing just what Kerry suggests.

Beyond Iraq, of concern is Kerry's "100 Days to Change America" plan. Besides placing little emphasis on national security, his first legislative goal, he says, is to enact a health care plan. This could bring back bad memories of the adventures of Bill and Hillary. It's not that I think Kerry shouldn't try to broaden access to health care, but why commit himself to doing something about it right away? Aren't homeland security, national security, and the blooming deficit the big issues that will get moderates to transcend any Massachusetts-inspired prejudices about Kerry? The Chances of a President Kerry actually being able to pass a health plan that he likes with a Republican Congress are slim anyway.

What's more, Kerry's "100 Days" plan says nothing of job creation. The Democrat candidates in general have been rather lacking in creativity with regard to job creation proposals. It will be a sticking point in the election, however, and with George W. Bush pushing retraining programs at community colleges, Kerry needs to have something more inspiring than a "new manufacturing jobs credit."

Kerry might consider promoting a targeted investment program for cities throughout America facing the highest rates of unemployment - call it "Revitalize America". Many medium-sized cities currently face a serious construction slump. Some targeted federal money would help get key development projects off the ground in these areas, giving them a much-needed leg up, while employing thousands of workers nationwide.

Kerry should also consider suggesting a "Super Schools" initiative, where the federal government would provide grants to replace or repair America's public schools as needed, all across the country, creating thousands more jobs.

Otherwise, Kerry's delivery has been quite good and suggests that, despite his superficial Massachusetts baggage, he deserves, without a doubt, the imprimatur of electability. He's a veteran, not just of the Vietnam War, but of hard-won campaigns - he toughed it out against Governor Bill Weld some 6 years ago and prevailed to retain his senate seat. Kerry also currently sits on both the Finance and Foreign Relations committees in the Senate, lending legitimacy to his claims to expertise in foreign affairs and credibility on deficit reduction.

Still, Kerry has to wage the right campaign or he could face a Gore-esque defeat. He must stay on message and avoid the kind of bad, campaign-maneuvering press that hampered his campaign early in the primary and which plagued Al Gore's campaign in 2000. (Don't fire anyone!) So far, however, things look good.

Bill O'Reilly did give Kerry a sort of back-handed compliment back in December: "You're not a liberal guy. You're liberal on some issues…Conservative on others…You can't type you…" He said.

Will the dreaded "L" word haunt the Democrats this election year? Well, if the Bush campaign does start jumping up and down and fanatically screaming "Liberal!" Kerry can just turn around and run an ad featuring a clip of Bill O'Reilly saying the above. With the likes of O'Reilly vouching for him, Kerry's looking to be made of teflon, not velcro.

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